Why Localized Climate Data Matters
One of the main goals of the CARMINE project is to facilitate climate-resilient development through knowledge-based tools and strategies that meet the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change Charter. This mission is especially critical as urban areas face increasing challenges related to extreme weather events and changing climate patterns. While regional and global climate models are valuable, they often lack the level of detail that city planners need to address specific urban vulnerabilities. To bridge this gap, CARMINE focuses on providing knowledge-based pathways for climate resilience, connecting local and regional scales through impact-based decision support services and multi-level climate governance.
Bridging the Global to Local Climate Data Gap
The CARMINE project doesn’t work in isolation. It draws upon a wealth of data from platforms like Climate-ADAPT, Copernicus Climate Change Service, and findings from previous EU climate projects. This data is enriched with city-specific inputs gathered directly from local stakeholders, ensuring that the models reflect real-world conditions and priorities.
With the analysis of the current climate associated to a time period centered on 2030-2035, and projections extending to time periods centered on 2050, the project aligns with the latest climate scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). In pursuit of a sustainable future amid climate uncertainties, the CARMINE project explores a range of different modelling approaches and climate scenarios from the latest CMIP6 models providing critical insights to guide our resilience strategies.
CARMINE aims to generate essential insights that will shape resilient, sustainable strategies for an uncertain climate future, and build climate resilient communities by integrating advanced data, models, tools, and stakeholder engagement.
Eight Cities Lead the Way as Climate Resilience “Laboratories”
Within WP2, ‘Integrating Climate Physical Risk Assessment Models and Earth System Processes,’ CARMINE has identified climatic hazards across its 8 designated CSAs, linking them to existing climate data, urban models, and observations. To ensure accuracy, a validation phase using past extreme events is conducted to calibrate the models. This is followed by new statistical and dynamical downscaling activities, creating high-resolution datasets that support city-scale impact analysis. This approach enhances understanding of the benefits of high-resolution climate and weather data, particularly for assessing the location and intensity of urban-scale meteorological events. Finally, advanced urban modeling tools are applied, and hazard indicators are thoroughly evaluated.
WP2 in Action: High-Resolution Climate Hazard Assessment and Protocol Development for Urban Resilience
The project’s real-world testing grounds are eight metropolitan areas designated as Case Study Areas (CSAs). These cities serve as “laboratories” where WP2’s high-resolution climate data techniques are put to the test. Each CSA is working toward joining the EU Mission on Adaptation to Climate Change Charter by the project’s end, benefiting from localized climate insights that enable more informed, resilient urban planning.
A recent scientific work provides tangible examples of how this approach was implemented in urban contexts to improve climatic hazards replicability and was an inspiration to define the activities of WP2 in the CARMINE project.
A Glimpse at What’s Next: Practical Climate Information for Cities
The culmination of WP2’s work will be a set of practical, actionable climate insights tailored to each of the CSAs, empowering local governments and planners with information that’s not only scientifically rigorous but also directly applicable to their climate resilience efforts. To clearly define these expected outcomes, an experimental protocol has been developed, ensuring that climate information across the CSAs is both usable and effective.
After extensive discussions among modelers and CSA representatives, the experimental protocol is about to be distributed among project partners. It outlines key details, including downscaling activities, simulation setups, parameters, and outputs, all structured to support city-specific climate resilience initiatives.
These tools will provide cities with a clearer, more accurate understanding of the potential impacts of climate hazards and the strategies needed to build a climate-resilient future. With WP2’s advancements, the CARMINE project offers a promising model for urban areas worldwide, showcasing the power of data-driven solutions in addressing the challenges of climate change.
Stay tuned for more updates on CARMINE’s progress as it continues to equip cities with the tools and insights needed for a resilient future!
